globals [ run-counter quarter-counter nOfWorkers ; no. of economically active nOfEmployers unNormalisedMeanWage wageDistribution nOfJobseekers nOfJobOffers nOfRecruitingEmployers nOfRecruitingEmployers1 nOfRecruitingEmployers2 nOfRecruitingEmployers3plus recruitingEmployersList totalNewRecruits totalUnfilledVacancies nOfEmployedAtStartOfQuarter nOfEmployedAfterDemogAndBusinessChanges nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter nOfUnemployedAtEndOfQuarter unemploymentRate% unempRate%Record meanUnempRate%OverRun unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns rangeUnempRate%OverRun unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns LTU% LTU%Record meanLTU%OverRun LTU%RecordOverAllRuns totalLabourDemand totalVacanciesAtEndOfQuarter vacancyRate% vacancyRate%Record meanVacancyRate%OverRun vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns meanWage meanWageRecord meanWageOverRun meanWageOverAllRuns ;flows nOfQuitters nOfRetirees nOfRetiredEmployees nOfRetiredUnemployed nOfEmployeesLeavingLF nOfUnemployedLeavingLF nOfNewEntrants nOfReturningWorkers nOfRedundantWorkers nIntoWork nUnempBackToWork nEmpBackToWork nIntoU netFlow transitionRate%EtoU transitionRate%UtoE transitionRate%EtoI transitionRate%UtoI transitionRate%EtoURecord transitionRate%UtoERecord transitionRate%EtoIRecord transitionRate%UtoIRecord meanTransitionRate%EtoURecord meanTransitionRate%UtoERecord meanTransitionRate%EtoIRecord meanTransitionRate%UtoIRecord transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns nOfEmployersClosing wageIncreaseFactor wageReductionFactor ; error messages checkTotalAtStartQ ; checks sum employed and unemployed total 1000 - should be 0 checkNIntoWork ; ensures those returning to work divided beteen those moving from unemployment and those moving from employment: 0 if OK unempError; "Yes" if no. of vacancies != no. of unemployed: 0 if OK wageError ; "Yes" if wage change outside permitted range errorLastEmployer ; "Yes" if any workers with new emoployer same as last employer: 0 if OK sizeError; "Yes" if myVacancies + myEmployees != mySize : 0 if OK ] breed [workers worker] breed [employers employer] workers-own [ dateOfEntry age myInitialWage myWage myWageChange% my-work-history myEmployer myLastEmployer myPossibleEmployers myLastWage startOfUSpell durationOfU completedUSpells tempStatus ] employers-own [ mySize date-of-entry myEmployees listOfMyEmployees listOfMyWages myWorkerProfile myNewRecruits myVacancyWages myVacancies status myWageOffer ; used when creating vacancies myMaxWageOffer ; used in job market myVacancyOffer myPossibleEmployees listMyNewRecuits myLatestRecruit myUnfilledVacancies myUnfilledVacancyWages ] ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ to setup ; no visualisation needed but may need to look at characteristics of agents clear-all ask patches [set pcolor white] set nOfWorkers 1000 set nOfEmployers 100 create-workers nOfWorkers create-employers nOfEmployers set meanWageOverAllRuns [ ] set unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns [ ] set unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns [ ] set vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns [ ] set LTU%RecordOverAllRuns [ ] set transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns [ ] set transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns [ ] set transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns [ ] set transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns [ ] set wageIncreaseFactor ( 1 + ( maxWageIncrease% / 100 )) set wageReductionFactor ( 1 - ( maxWageReduction% / 100 )) end ;-------------------------------------------- to go repeat number-of-runs [ initialise-run-records initialise-run-workers initialise-run-employers record-initial-results repeat number-of-quarters [ initialise-quarter ; Core dynamics ; retirement other movement in and out of the labour force - workers retire and are replaced by new unemployed workers in-and-out-of-labour-force ; business demographics - each quarter two of the employers go out of business and are replaced by two new ones make-business-changes ; frictional unemployment - workers leave and vacancies created create-frictional-unemployment run-job-market collect-data-at-end-of-quarter ] record-results-at-end-of-run ] record-results-at-end-of-all-runs end ;________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ; PROCEDURES ;________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ; INITIALISATION to initialise-run-records ; counters set run-counter run-counter + 1 set quarter-counter 0 ; lists set recruitingEmployersList [ ] set meanWageRecord [ ] set LTU%Record [ ] set unempRate%Record [ ] set vacancyRate%Record [ ] set meanUnempRate%OverRun [ ] set meanVacancyRate%OverRun [ ] set transitionRate%EtoURecord [ ] set transitionRate%UtoERecord [ ] set transitionRate%EtoIRecord [ ] set transitionRate%UtoIRecord [ ] end ;-------------------------------------------------------------- to initialise-run-workers ask workers [ initialise-workers set age ( 20 + ( random 160 / 4 ) ) ; set age randomly but evenly distributed from 20 to 59, to nearest quarter ] ; set wages if scenario = "Homog" [ ask workers [ set myWage 100 ] ] if scenario = "Guildford" [ ask workers [ set myWage ( 10 * ( e ^ random-normal 1 0.7 ) ) ] set unNormalisedMeanWage mean [ myWage] of workers ask workers [ set myWage precision ( myWage * 100 / unNormalisedMeanWage ) 0 set myInitialWage myWage ] ] end ;---------------------------------------------- to initialise-run-employers ask employers [ set mySize 0 initialise-employers ] if scenario = "Homog" [ setInitialSize 100 10 ] if scenario = "Guildford" [ setInitialSize 1 100 setInitialSize 1 97 setInitialSize 3 50 setInitialSize 4 30 setInitialSize 27 15 setInitialSize 64 2 ask employers with [ mySize > 95 ] [ set size 14 ] ] ; allocate workers to employers ask employers [ ask n-of mySize workers with [ myEmployer = nobody ] [ set myEmployer myself set color blue ] set myEmployees count workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] set listOfMyEmployees [ who ] of workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] set listOfMyWages [ myWage ] of workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] ] end ;-------------------------------------------------- to record-initial-results ; to record initial distributions of wages and employer size if run-counter = 1 [ initial-plots ] end ;-------------------------------------------- to locate ; used by workers and employers setxy random-pxcor random-pycor if any? other turtles-here [ let empty-patches patches with [ not any? turtles-here ] if not any? empty-patches [ show "Run out of empty patches!"] move-to one-of empty-patches ] end ;-------------------------------------------- to initialise-workers locate set shape "person" set color red set size 5 set dateOfEntry quarter-counter set myEmployer nobody set my-work-history [ ] set durationOfU 0 set completedUSpells 0 end ;------------------------------------------------- to initialise-employers locate set shape "pentagon" set color black set size 7 set myEmployees 0 set listOfMyEmployees [ ] set listOfMyWages [ ] set myWorkerProfile [ ] set myVacancies 0 set myVacancyWages [ ] set myUnfilledVacancyWages [ ] set listMyNewRecuits [ ] set myNewRecruits 0 set myWageOffer 0 end ;------------------------------------------- to setInitialSize [ numberOfEmployers employerSize ] ask n-of numberOfEmployers employers with [ mySize = 0 ] [ set mySize employerSize ] end ;---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ; DYNAMICS to initialise-quarter set quarter-counter ( quarter-counter + 1 ) ; reset ask workers [ set tempStatus 0 set myPossibleEmployers[ ] ] ask employers [ set myMaxWageOffer 0 set myLatestRecruit nobody set myNewRecruits 0 ] set nOfNewEntrants 0 set nOfReturningWorkers 0 set nOfRedundantWorkers 0 set nOfQuitters 0 set nIntoWork 0 set nIntoU 0 set netFlow 0 ask workers with [ myEmployer != nobody ] [ set color blue ] ask workers with [ myEmployer = nobody ] [ set durationOfU ( quarter-counter - startOfUSpell ) ] ; measuring unemployment here means that workers can leave work and get a job within the quarter and not be counted as unemployed set nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter count workers with [ myEmployer = nobody ] set nOfEmployedAtStartOfQuarter count workers with [ myEmployer != nobody ] set checkTotalAtStartQ ( nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter + nOfEmployedAtStartOfQuarter - 1000 ) ; should be 0 end ;--------------------------------------------------------- to in-and-out-of-labour-force ; retirement ask workers [ set age ( age + 0.25 ) ] ask workers with [ age = 60 ] [ set tempStatus "Retired" ] set nOfRetirees count workers with [ tempStatus = "Retired" ] set nOfRetiredEmployees count workers with [ tempStatus = "Retired" and myEmployer != nobody ] set nOfRetiredUnemployed count workers with [ tempStatus = "Retired" and myEmployer = nobody ] ask workers with [ tempStatus = "Retired" and myEmployer != nobody] [ ask myEmployer [ calculate-vacancies ] ] ask workers with [ tempStatus = "Retired" ] [ die ] ; new workers join labour force: number set to exactly offset retirees ; but characteristics not matched set nOfNewEntrants nOfRetirees create-workers nOfNewEntrants [ initialise-workers set age 20 set startOfUSpell quarter-counter set color red if scenario = "Homog" [ set myWage 100 become-unemployed] if scenario = "Guildford" [ set myWage ( 10 * ( e ^ random-normal 1 0.7 ) ) set myWage precision ( myWage * 100 / unNormalisedMeanWage ) 0 set myInitialWage myWage become-unemployed ] ] ; other leavers ; unemployed: % leaving set by slider set nOfUnemployedLeavingLF precision ( nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter * %UnempLeavingLF / 100 ) 0 if nOfUnemployedLeavingLF > 0 [ ask n-of nOfUnemployedLeavingLF workers with [ age < 60 and myEmployer = nobody] [ set tempStatus "LeavingLF" ] ] ; employees: % leaving set by slider set nOfEmployeesLeavingLF precision ( nOfEmployedAtStartOfQuarter * %EmpLeavingLF / 100 ) 0 if nOfEmployeesLeavingLF > 0 [ ask n-of nOfEmployeesLeavingLF workers with [ age < 60 and myEmployer != nobody] [ set tempStatus "LeavingLF" ] ] ask workers with [ tempStatus = "LeavingLF" and myEmployer != nobody] [ ask myEmployer [ calculate-vacancies ] ] ask workers with [ tempStatus = "LeavingLF" ] [ die ] ; new workers join labour force: number set to exactly offset leavers ; but characteristics not matched set nOfReturningWorkers ( nOfEmployeesLeavingLF + nOfUnemployedLeavingLF ) create-workers nOfReturningWorkers [ initialise-workers set age ( 20 + ( random 160 / 4 ) ) set startOfUSpell quarter-counter set color red if scenario = "Homog" [ set myWage 100 become-unemployed] if scenario = "Guildford" [ set myWage ( 10 * ( e ^ random-normal 1 0.7 ) ) set myWage precision ( myWage * 100 / unNormalisedMeanWage ) 0 set myInitialWage myWage become-unemployed ] ] end ;-------------------------------------------------------------------- to make-business-changes ; employers closing if scenario = "Homog" [ set nOfEmployersClosing 2 ask n-of 2 employers [ set status "Closing"] ] if scenario = "Guildford" [ set nOfEmployersClosing 2 ask n-of 2 employers with [ mySize < 3 ] [ set status "Closing"] ] ask employers with [ status = "Closing" ] [ ask workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] [ set tempStatus "Redundant" ] ] ; not all closing employers may have full staff as some may have quit. set nOfRedundantWorkers count workers with [ tempStatus = "Redundant" ] ask workers with [ tempStatus = "Redundant" ] [ set myLastEmployer "Dead" become-unemployed ] ask employers with [ status = "Closing" ] [ die ] ; new employers create-employers nOfEmployersClosing [ initialise-employers set status "New" set color brown set date-of-entry quarter-counter ] if scenario = "Homog" [ ask employers with [ status = "New" ] [ set mySize 10 create-new-jobs ] ] if scenario = "Guildford" [ ask employers with [ status = "New" ] [ set mySize 2 create-new-jobs ] ] end ;----------------------------------------------------------------- to create-frictional-unemployment set nOfEmployedAfterDemogAndBusinessChanges count workers with [ myEmployer != nobody ] set nOfQuitters floor ( ( %EmpsLeavingJob / 100 ) * nOfEmployedAfterDemogAndBusinessChanges ) ask n-of nOfQuitters workers with [ myEmployer != nobody ] [ set tempStatus "Quitter" ] ; important to set status then do action - see Guidance ask workers with [ tempStatus = "Quitter" ] [ ask myEmployer [ calculate-vacancies ] ] ; worker actions - must come after or else "myEmployer" = nobody ask workers with [ tempStatus = "Quitter" ] [ set myLastEmployer [ who ] of myEmployer become-unemployed ] end ;--------------------------------------------------------------------------------- to run-job-market ; nOfJobseekers should equal nOfJobOffers set nOfJobseekers count workers with [ myEmployer = nobody ] set nOfJobOffers sum [ myVacancies ] of employers set nOfRecruitingEmployers count employers with [ myVacancies > 0 ] set nOfRecruitingEmployers1 count employers with [ myVacancies = 1 ] set nOfRecruitingEmployers2 count employers with [ myVacancies = 2 ] set nOfRecruitingEmployers3plus count employers with [ myVacancies > 2 ] if run-counter = 1 [ plot-job-market plot-recruiting-employers ] recruit ;----------------- ; after job search set nIntoWork count workers with [ tempStatus = "Into work" ] ; need to split those moving directly from job to job from those moving from unemployment into work set nUnempBackToWork count workers with [ tempStatus = "Into work" and startOfUSpell != quarter-counter ] set nEmpBackToWork count workers with [ tempStatus = "Into work" and startOfUSpell = quarter-counter ] ; to check this is being done correctly: ; should be 0 set checkNIntoWork ( nIntoWork - nUnempBackToWork - nEmpBackToWork ) ; ask workers to record work history ask workers [ set my-work-history lput myEmployer my-work-history ] ; employers ask employers with [ status = "New" ] [ set myEmployees count workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] set listOfMyEmployees [ who ] of workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] set listOfMyWages [ myWage ] of workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] set status 0 ] end ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ; RESULTS (PLOTS also at end) ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ to collect-data-at-end-of-quarter ; wages set meanWage mean [ myWage] of workers with [ myWage > 0 ] ; unemployment rate set nOfUnemployedAtEndOfQuarter count workers with [ myEmployer = nobody ] set unemploymentRate% precision ( nOfUnemployedAtEndOfQuarter / nOfWorkers * 100 ) 2 ; 'workers' = employed and unemployed ; to measure duration if nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter > 0 [ set LTU% precision (( count workers with [ durationOfU > 3 ] ) / nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter * 100 ) 1 ] if number-of-quarters > run-in-time [ set LTU%Record lput LTU% LTU%Record ] set totalLabourDemand sum [ mySize ] of employers ; check set totalVacanciesAtEndOfQuarter sum [ myVacancies ] of employers set vacancyRate% precision (( totalVacanciesAtEndOfQuarter / totalLabourDemand ) * 100 ) 1 set nIntoU ( nOfQuitters + nOfRedundantWorkers + nOfNewEntrants + nOfReturningWorkers ) set netFlow ( nIntoWork - nIntoU ) ; Transition rates ; Out of employment ; From employment to unemployment: workers quitting and being made redundant set transitionRate%EtoU precision ( ( ( nOfQuitters + nOfRedundantWorkers ) / nOfEmployedAtStartOfQuarter ) * 100 ) 3 ; From employment out of labour force - retiring and leaving for other reasons set transitionRate%EtoI precision ( ( ( nOfRetiredEmployees + nOfEmployeesLeavingLF )/ nOfEmployedAtStartOfQuarter ) * 100 ) 2 ; Out of unemployment ; Those leaving jobs abd moving back into employment within quarter do NOT count as unemployed ; So need to exclude those who become unemployed in this quarter ifelse nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter > 0 [ set transitionRate%UtoE precision ( (nUnempBackToWork / nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter ) * 100 ) 2 set transitionRate%UtoI precision ( ( ( nOfRetiredUnemployed + nOfUnemployedLeavingLF ) / nOfUnemployedAtStartOfQuarter ) * 100 ) 2 ] [ set transitionRate%UtoE 0 set transitionRate%UtoI 0] ; data collection if quarter-counter > run-in-time [ set meanWageRecord lput meanWage meanWageRecord set unempRate%Record lput unemploymentRate% unempRate%Record set vacancyRate%Record lput vacancyRate% vacancyRate%Record set LTU%Record lput LTU% LTU%Record set transitionRate%EtoURecord lput transitionRate%EtoU transitionRate%EtoURecord set transitionRate%UtoERecord lput transitionRate%UtoE transitionRate%UtoERecord set transitionRate%EtoIRecord lput transitionRate%EtoI transitionRate%EtoIRecord set transitionRate%UtoIRecord lput transitionRate%UtoI transitionRate%UtoIRecord ] ; plots if run-counter = 1 [ plot-rates% plot-long-term-unemployed% plot-flows plot-wage-changes plot-wages ] if run-counter = 1 and quarter-counter > 1 [ plot-transition-rates ] ; error messages ; micro - workers if totalVacanciesAtEndOfQuarter != nOfUnemployedAtEndOfQuarter [ set unempError "Yes" ] end ;--------------------------------------------- to record-results-at-end-of-run if quarter-counter > run-in-time [ set meanWageOverRun precision mean ( meanWageRecord ) 2 set meanUnempRate%OverRun precision mean ( unempRate%Record ) 2 set rangeUnempRate%OverRun precision ( max unempRate%Record - min unempRate%Record ) 2 set meanVacancyRate%OverRun precision mean ( vacancyRate%Record ) 2 set meanLTU%OverRun precision mean ( LTU%Record ) 2 set meanTransitionRate%EtoURecord precision mean ( transitionRate%EtoURecord ) 2 set meanTransitionRate%UtoERecord precision mean ( transitionRate%UtoERecord ) 2 set meanTransitionRate%EtoIRecord precision mean ( transitionRate%EtoIRecord ) 2 set meanTransitionRate%UtoIRecord precision mean ( transitionRate%UtoIRecord ) 2 ] if number-of-runs > 1 and quarter-counter > run-in-time [ set meanWageOverAllRuns lput meanWageOverRun meanWageOverAllRuns set unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns lput meanUnempRate%OverRun unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns set unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns lput rangeUnempRate%OverRun unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns set vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns lput meanVacancyRate%OverRun vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns set LTU%RecordOverAllRuns lput meanLTU%OverRun LTU%RecordOverAllRuns set transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns lput meanTransitionRate%EtoURecord transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns set transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns lput meanTransitionRate%UtoERecord transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns set transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns lput meanTransitionRate%EtoIRecord transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns set transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns lput meanTransitionRate%UtoIRecord transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns ] end ;--------------------------------------------- to record-results-at-end-of-all-runs if number-of-quarters > run-in-time and number-of-runs = 1 [ ; results to file file-open ( word scenario "-" %EmpsLeavingJob "-"maxWageIncrease%"-"maxWageReduction%"-"number-of-quarters "("run-in-time") Qs-" number-of-runs"-.csv" ) file-print ( word scenario ) file-print ( word "%EmpsLeavingJob " %EmpsLeavingJob ) file-print ( word "%UnempLeavingLF " %UnempLeavingLF ) file-print ( word "%EmpLeavingLF " %EmpLeavingLF ) file-print ( word "maxWageIncrease% " maxWageIncrease% ) file-print ( word "maxWageReduction% "maxWageReduction% ) file-print " " file-print ( word "Results over " number-of-quarters " quarters (ignoring first " run-in-time ") and " number-of-runs " run" ) file-print " " file-print (word "Mean wage: " meanWageOverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( meanWageRecord ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Vacancy rate %: mean: " meanVacancyRate%OverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( vacancyRate%Record ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Unemployment rate %: mean: " meanUnempRate%OverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( unempRate%Record ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Unemployment rate %: range: " rangeUnempRate%OverRun ) file-print (word "Long-term unemployed %: mean: " meanLTU%OverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( LTU%Record ) 2 " )" ) file-print "Hazard Rates " file-print (word " E to U %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%EtoURecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoURecord ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word " U to E %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%UtoERecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoERecord ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word " E to I %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%EtoIRecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoIRecord ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word " U to I %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%UtoIRecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoIRecord ) 2 " )" ) file-close ; results to interface output-print ( word "Results over " number-of-quarters " quarters (ignoring first " run-in-time ") and " number-of-runs " run" ) output-print " " output-print (word "Mean wage: " meanWageOverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( meanWageRecord ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Vacancy rate %: mean: " meanVacancyRate%OverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( vacancyRate%Record ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Unemployment rate %: mean: " meanUnempRate%OverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( unempRate%Record ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Unemployment rate %: range: " rangeUnempRate%OverRun ) output-print (word "Long-term unemployed %: mean: " meanLTU%OverRun " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( LTU%Record ) 2 " )" ) output-print "Hazard Rates " output-print (word " E to U %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%EtoURecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoURecord ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word " U to E %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%UtoERecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoERecord ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word " E to I %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%EtoIRecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoIRecord ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word " U to I %: mean: " meanTransitionRate%UtoIRecord " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoIRecord ) 2 " )" ) ] if number-of-quarters > run-in-time and number-of-runs > 1 [ ; results to file file-open ( word scenario "-" %EmpsLeavingJob "-" number-of-quarters "("run-in-time") Qs-" maxWageIncrease% "%I-" maxWageReduction% "%D-"number-of-runs"-.csv" ) file-print ( word scenario ) file-print ( word "%EmpsLeavingJob " %EmpsLeavingJob ) file-print ( word "maxWageIncrease% " maxWageIncrease% ) file-print ( word "maxWageReduction% "maxWageReduction% ) file-print " " file-print ( word "Results over " number-of-quarters " quarters (ignoring first " run-in-time ") and " number-of-runs " runs" ) file-print " " file-print (word "Mean wage: " precision mean ( meanWageOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( meanWageOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Vacancy rate %: mean: " precision mean ( vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Unemployment rate %: mean: " precision mean ( unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Unemployment rate %: range: " precision mean ( unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word "Long-term unemployed %: mean: " precision mean ( LTU%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( LTU%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print "Hazard Rates " file-print (word " E to U %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word " U to E %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word " E to I %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-print (word " U to I %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) file-close ; results to interface output-print ( word "Results over " number-of-quarters " quarters (ignoring first " run-in-time ") and " number-of-runs " runs" ) output-print " " output-print (word "Mean wage: " precision mean ( meanWageOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( meanWageOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Vacancy rate %: mean: " precision mean ( vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( vacancyRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Unemployment rate %: mean: " precision mean ( unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( unempRate%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Unemployment rate %: mean of range: " precision mean ( unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( unempRate%RangeRecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word "Long-term unemployed %: mean: " precision mean ( LTU%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( LTU%RecordOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print "Hazard Rates " output-print (word " E to U %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoUOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word " U to E %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoEOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word " E to I %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%EtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) output-print (word " U to I %: mean: " precision mean ( transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " (sd " precision standard-deviation ( transitionRate%UtoIOverAllRuns ) 2 " )" ) ] export-all-plots ( word "Plots-" scenario "-" %EmpsLeavingJob "-" maxWageIncrease% "%I-" maxWageReduction% "%D-"number-of-quarters " Qs.csv" ) end ;---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ;---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ; SUBROUTINES to become-unemployed set myEmployer nobody set myLastWage myWage set myWage 0 set color red set startOfUSpell quarter-counter end ;------------------------------- to create-new-jobs repeat mySize [ if scenario = "Homog" [ set myWageOffer 100 create-vacancy ] if scenario = "Guildford" [ set myWageOffer ( 10 * ( e ^ random-normal 1 0.7 ) ) set myWageOffer precision ( myWageOffer * 100 / unNormalisedMeanWage ) 0 create-vacancy ] ] end ;------------------------ to calculate-vacancies ; employer action initiated by workers quitting and retiring set myWageOffer [ myWage ] of myself create-vacancy set color green set listOfMyEmployees remove [ who ] of myself listOfMyEmployees set myEmployees count workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] end ;------------------------ ; a set of employer actions - used by workers who quit and new employers to create-vacancy ; employer action set myVacancies ( myVacancies + 1 ) set myVacancyWages lput myWageOffer myVacancyWages end ;-------------------------- to recruit ask employers with [ myVacancies > 0 ] [ set myVacancyWages sort-by > myVacancyWages ] ; employers list vacancies by order of size of wage offer, starting with highest repeat nOfJobOffers [ ask employers with [ myVacancies > 0 ] [ set myMaxWageOffer item 0 myVacancyWages ] ; to sort employers by highest wage offered set recruitingEmployersList sort-by [ [ myMaxWageOffer ] of ?1 >= [ myMaxWageOffer ] of ?2 ] employers with [ myVacancies > 0 ] ask item 0 recruitingEmployersList ; employer offering highest wage [ set myPossibleEmployees workers with [ myEmployer = nobody and myLastEmployer != myself and wageIncreaseFactor * myLastWage >= [ myMaxWageOffer ] of myself and wageReductionFactor * myLastWage <= [ myMaxWageOffer ] of myself ] ; selects one with highest last wage if myPossibleEmployees != nobody [ set myLatestRecruit max-one-of myPossibleEmployees [ myLastWage ] ] if myLatestRecruit != nobody [ ; worker actions ask myLatestRecruit [ set myEmployer myself set myWage [ myMaxWageOffer ] of myEmployer set myWageChange% precision ( ( myWage - myLastWage ) / myLastWage * 100 ) 1 set durationOfU 0 set completedUSpells ( completedUSpells + 1 ) set color violet set tempStatus "Into work" ] ; end of worker actions ; employer actions set listOfMyEmployees lput [ who ] of myLatestRecruit listOfMyEmployees set myNewRecruits ( myNewRecruits + 1 ) set listMyNewRecuits lput myLatestRecruit listMyNewRecuits ] ; employer actions whether or not job filled set myEmployees count workers with [ myEmployer = myself ] set myVacancies ( myVacancies - 1 ) if myLatestRecruit = nobody [ set myUnfilledVacancies ( myUnfilledVacancies + 1 ) set myUnfilledVacancyWages lput ( item 0 myVacancyWages ) myUnfilledVacancyWages ] set myVacancyWages remove-item 0 myVacancyWages ] ; to end actions by item 0 ] ; to end repeat ; reset ask employers [ set myVacancies myUnfilledVacancies set myUnfilledVacancies 0 set myVacancyWages myUnfilledVacancyWages set myUnfilledVacancyWages [ ] ] ; error messages if any? workers with [ myEmployer != 0 and myLastEmployer != 0 and myEmployer = myLastEmployer ] [ set errorLastEmployer "Yes"] if any? workers with [ tempStatus = "Into work" and myWageChange% >= 0 and myWageChange% > maxWageIncrease% ] [ set wageError "Yes" ] if any? workers with [ tempStatus = "Into work" and myWageChange% <= 0 and myWageChange% < (- maxWageReduction% ) ] [ set wageError "Yes" ] if any? employers with [ myVacancies + myEmployees != mySize ] [ set sizeError "Yes" ] end ;-------------------------------------------- ; PLOTS ;-------------------------------------------- to initial-plots set-current-plot "Initial wage distribution" set-plot-x-range 0 1000 set-plot-y-range 0 100 set-histogram-num-bars 100 histogram [ myWage ] of workers set-current-plot "Employer sizes" set-plot-x-range 0 110 set-plot-y-range 0 100 set-histogram-num-bars 110 histogram [ mySize ] of employers end to plot-job-market set-current-plot "Job Market" set-current-plot-pen "Seek" plotxy quarter-counter nOfJobseekers set-current-plot-pen "Vacs" plotxy quarter-counter nOfJobOffers end to plot-recruiting-employers set-current-plot "Recruiting employers" set-current-plot-pen "All" plotxy quarter-counter nOfRecruitingEmployers set-current-plot-pen "1Vac" plotxy quarter-counter nOfRecruitingEmployers1 set-current-plot-pen "2Vacs" plotxy quarter-counter nOfRecruitingEmployers2 set-current-plot-pen "3+Vacs" plotxy quarter-counter nOfRecruitingEmployers3plus end to plot-rates% set-current-plot "U and V Rates %" set-current-plot-pen "Unemp" plotxy quarter-counter unemploymentRate% set-current-plot-pen "Vacs" plotxy quarter-counter vacancyRate% end to plot-flows set-current-plot "Flows" set-current-plot-pen "Retd" plotxy quarter-counter nOfRetirees set-current-plot-pen "New" plotxy quarter-counter nOfNewEntrants ; nOfRetirees = nOfNewEntrants set-current-plot-pen "LLF" plotxy quarter-counter ( nOfEmployeesLeavingLF + nOfUnemployedLeavingLF ) set-current-plot-pen "Return" plotxy quarter-counter nOfReturningWorkers ; nLeavingLF = nOfReturningWorkers set-current-plot-pen "Quit" plotxy quarter-counter nOfQuitters set-current-plot-pen "Red" plotxy quarter-counter nOfRedundantWorkers set-current-plot-pen "To U" plotxy quarter-counter nIntoU ; nOfQuitters + nOfRedundantWorkers + nOfYNewEntrants + nOfReturningWorkers set-current-plot-pen "U to E" plotxy quarter-counter nUnempBackToWork set-current-plot-pen "E to E" plotxy quarter-counter nEmpBackToWork set-current-plot-pen "To E" plotxy quarter-counter nIntoWork ; nUnempBackToWork + nEmpBackToWork set-current-plot-pen "Net U" plotxy quarter-counter netFlow ; nIntoWork - nIntoU end to plot-transition-rates set-current-plot "Transition rates" set-current-plot-pen "E->U" plotxy quarter-counter transitionRate%EtoU set-current-plot-pen "U->E" plotxy quarter-counter transitionRate%UtoE set-current-plot-pen "E->I" plotxy quarter-counter transitionRate%EtoI set-current-plot-pen "U->I" plotxy quarter-counter transitionRate%UtoI end to plot-long-term-unemployed% set-current-plot "LT Unemployed %" plotxy quarter-counter LTU% end to plot-wage-changes set-current-plot "Wage changes" set-current-plot-pen "+" plotxy quarter-counter count workers with [ myWageChange% > 0 ] set-current-plot-pen "0" plotxy quarter-counter count workers with [ myWageChange% = 0 ] set-current-plot-pen "-" plotxy quarter-counter count workers with [ myWageChange% < 0 ] end to plot-wages set-current-plot "Wages (in emp)" set-current-plot-pen "max" plotxy quarter-counter max [ myWage ] of workers with [ myEmployer != nobody ] set-current-plot-pen "min" plotxy quarter-counter min [ myWage ] of workers with [ myEmployer != nobody ] set-current-plot-pen "mean" plotxy quarter-counter meanWage end ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ;___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ @#$#@#$#@ GRAPHICS-WINDOW 21 795 490 1285 200 200 1.145 1 10 1 1 1 0 1 1 1 -200 200 -200 200 0 0 1 ticks 30.0 BUTTON 16 10 79 43 NIL setup NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 BUTTON 17 47 80 80 NIL go NIL 1 T OBSERVER NIL NIL NIL NIL 1 PLOT 926 672 1174 792 Initial wage distribution Wages Workers 0.0 1000.0 0.0 100.0 true false "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 1 -16777216 true "" "" CHOOSER 114 10 252 55 number-of-runs number-of-runs 1 2 10 30 1 CHOOSER 160 64 318 109 scenario scenario "Homog" "Guildford" 1 PLOT 692 671 909 791 Employer Sizes Size Frequency 0.0 110.0 0.0 100.0 true false "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 1 -16777216 true "" "" PLOT 353 222 737 457 U and V Rates % Quarter Rates % 0.0 200.0 0.0 10.0 true true "" "" PENS "Unemp" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "" "Vacs" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "" "" SLIDER 217 115 403 148 %EmpsLeavingJob %EmpsLeavingJob 0 10 1 0.5 1 NIL HORIZONTAL CHOOSER 380 10 518 55 number-of-quarters number-of-quarters 1 2 12 100 200 500 1000 4 MONITOR 526 12 628 57 NIL quarter-counter 0 1 11 PLOT 847 432 1218 653 Flows Quarters Number 0.0 200.0 -50.0 50.0 true true "" "" PENS "Retd" 1.0 0 -7500403 true "" "" "New" 1.0 0 -955883 true "" "" "Quit" 1.0 0 -6459832 true "" "" "LLF" 1.0 0 -2064490 true "" "" "Return" 1.0 0 -14835848 true "" "" "Red" 1.0 0 -5825686 true "" "" "To U" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "" "U to E" 1.0 0 -11221820 true "" "" "E to E" 1.0 0 -5325092 true "" "" "To E" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "" "" "Net U" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "" PLOT 357 460 690 618 LT Unemployed % Quarter Per cent 0.0 200.0 0.0 100.0 true false "" "" PENS "default" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "" MONITOR 927 797 1112 842 mean wage of workers in emp mean [ myWage] of workers with [ myWage > 0 ] 1 1 11 OUTPUT 774 10 1218 187 12 PLOT 846 197 1221 428 Transition rates Quarter % 0.0 200.0 0.0 100.0 true true "" "" PENS "E->U" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "" "U->E" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "" "" "E->I" 1.0 0 -13840069 true "" "" "U->I" 1.0 0 -5825686 true "" "" MONITOR 257 10 359 55 NIL run-counter 0 1 11 TEXTBOX 15 199 165 230 PLOTS FOR FIRST RUN 11 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 16 136 206 164 This is in addition to redundancies and retirement. 11 0.0 1 PLOT 11 650 327 793 Wage changes Quarter Number 0.0 200.0 0.0 1000.0 true true "" "" PENS "+" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "" "" "0" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "" "-" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "" MONITOR 534 887 605 932 NIL wageError 0 1 11 SLIDER 220 152 407 185 maxWageIncrease% maxWageIncrease% 0 100 10 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 415 154 588 187 maxWageReduction% maxWageReduction% 0 90 10 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 342 652 655 791 Wages (in emp) Quarters Mean wage 0.0 200.0 0.0 110.0 true true "" "" PENS "max" 1.0 0 -8630108 true "" "" "min" 1.0 0 -13840069 true "" "" "mean" 1.0 0 -16777216 true "" "" MONITOR 534 839 655 884 NIL checkTotalAtStartQ 0 1 11 CHOOSER 382 59 474 104 run-in-time run-in-time 100 300 0 TEXTBOX 484 64 590 105 Quarters for which results ignored. 11 0.0 1 SLIDER 415 117 587 150 %UnempLeavingLF %UnempLeavingLF 0 100 15 1 1 NIL HORIZONTAL SLIDER 594 117 766 150 %EmpLeavingLF %EmpLeavingLF 0 10 2 .5 1 NIL HORIZONTAL PLOT 6 223 326 381 Recruiting employers Quarter Number 0.0 200.0 0.0 50.0 true true "" "" PENS "All" 1.0 0 -13840069 true "" "" "1Vac" 1.0 0 -14835848 true "" "" "2Vacs" 1.0 0 -6459832 true "" "" "3+Vacs" 1.0 0 -955883 true "" "" TEXTBOX 15 119 165 138 Leaving probabilities 15 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 16 159 116 177 Wage flexibility 15 0.0 1 PLOT 8 386 328 600 Job Market NIL NIL 0.0 200.0 0.0 200.0 true true "" "" PENS "Seek" 1.0 0 -2674135 true "" "" "Vacs" 1.0 0 -13345367 true "" "" TEXTBOX 286 444 325 514 Seekers = vacs 11 0.0 1 TEXTBOX 691 278 736 349 Unemp rate = vac rate 11 0.0 1 @#$#@#$#@ ## WHAT IS IT? A very simple model of the labour market to illustrate the undrlying dynamics. ## HOW IT WORKS The number of workers is set at 1 000 and there are 100 employers. Workers' ages are divided evenly from 20 to 59, in quarters (i.e. 3 months). ###Scenarios Only two scenarios: "Homog" (meaning homogeneous) and "Guildford". #### Workers For the "Homog" scenario, all workers have wages of 100. For "Guildford" scenario, workers have different wages. Wages are allocated according to a normalised log normal distribution, with a mean of 1 and a standard deviation of 0.7. The quintile points of the distribution are calculated and the workers are divided into five groups: top, upper, middle, lower and bottom. #### Employers For the "Homog" scenario, all employers are the same size: 10. For "Guildford" scenario, the 10 employers and 1 000 workers are distributed as follows: 1 employer with 100 workers 1 employer with 97 workers 3 employers with 50 workers 4 employers with 30 workers 27 employers with 15 workers 64 employers with 2 workers ### Initial conditions Workers are allocated randomly to employers, so that initially there is full employment. This initial random allocation sets the employee structure for the employer. ### Dynamics Each quarter: ####Movements in and out of the labour force Workers aged 60 retire. They are replaced by new entrants, aged 20. Some workers under 60 leave the labour force either from employment or from unemployment. The proportions are set by a slider and the leavers are chosen at random. They are replaced by workers of random age. The initial wage for the new workers is generated by the same formula as used at the start of the program. This ensures that the average wage is maintained. ####Business demographics Some employers "die" and replacements are "born". Two employers close each quarter. For the "Guildford" scenario, only the smallest employers die. All three processes generate unemployment and vacancies. Employers calculate their vacancies. Existing employers use the same wage level paid to the worker who has left or retired. For new employers, the wages offered by the replacements are generated by the same formula used to calculate the wages initially. ###The labour market Workers take the wage offered by the employer. However, all workers cannot seek all jobs. Workers can only take a vacancy offering a wage in the band set by the maxWageIncrease% and maxWageReduction% sliders. For example, if maxWageIncrease% is set at 10 and maxWageReduction% set at 0, then workers will only seek job paying at least the same as their last wage and up to 10% higher i.e. none will accept a reduction in wages. But if maxWageReduction% is also set at 10, then workers can take jobs at +/- 10 per cent of their last wage. This allows workers to have some, but limited, upward and downward mobility. The unemployed workers and the recruiting employers are brought together in the labour market using the employer-led procedure described in the job-search model. ### Output The graphs are produced for the first run only and record the results from quarter 1. These are set to a csv file. Summary results are sent to the Interface and to a seprate csv file. Measurements are only recorded after the period set by the run-in time slider. ## CREDITS AND REFERENCES Runs on NetLogo 5.2. For more information, see Hamill, L. & Gilbert, N. (2016) Agent-based Modelling in Economics. Wiley: Chapter 7. To refer to this model: Hamill, L. & Gilbert, N. (2016) Guildford Labour Market model. 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